Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Huskies @ Wolverines CONN @ MICH

UCONN

HUSKIESCONN

34-5  |  Road

63
FINAL
Mon, Apr 6 • 8:50 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

36-3  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
HUSKIES --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Michigan)
HuskiesCONN (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Huskies Cover

11.5%

Wolverines Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

CONN By 1-7 points

8.0%

CONN By 8-14 points

2.2%

MICH By 1-7 points

20.1%

MICH By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
UCONN
81
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
78
UCONN
70
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Huskies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Huskies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 CONN @ MICH 63 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.7% more
Michigan: 6.1 vs UConn: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +38.1% more
Michigan: 10.9 vs UConn: 7.9
Assists (L5) +25.4% more
Michigan: 20.5 vs UConn: 16.4
Rebounding (L5) +18.4% more
Michigan: 40.6 vs UConn: 34.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 69.0 63
MICH Score 81.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.2 / 31.3 13.0 / 27.0
Assists 20.5 / 16.4 7.0 / 9.0
Blocks 6.1 / 4.1 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 41.8 38.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 78.5 89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 34.3 39.0 / 46.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.7 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 7.9 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
34-6-0 (85.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN
18-22-0 (45.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: -1.5
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
CONN
MICH
CONN
ML
78% 31-9
76% 29-9
63% 24-14
66% 23-12
ATS
78% 31-9
74% 28-10
63% 24-14
66% 23-12
TTL
57% 23-17
50% 19-19
100% 38-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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