Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Athletics HOU @ ATH

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

6-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Apr 5 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

2-6  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 23.63 -- 0.1 --
Elvis Alvarado None-None 8.44 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
23.63 ERA Ldr 8.44
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
ASTROS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
HOUSTON
2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
2
HOUSTON
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +45.2% more
Houston: 19.7 vs Athletics: 10.8
Home Runs (L5) +45.0% more
Houston: 1.5 vs Athletics: 0.8
Hits (L5) +37.7% more
Houston: 11.6 vs Athletics: 7.2
Strikeouts (L5) +36.2% more
Houston: 11.1 vs Athletics: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.0 10
ATH Score 2.0 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.2 / 11.6 16.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.5 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 11.1 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 19.7 27.0 / 21.0
Walks 7.5 / 4.3 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-72
50% 81-80
55% 90-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
45% 70-84-9
42% 66-90-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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