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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

5-3  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Apr 5 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

2-6  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Backhus
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Backhus

#19 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brennan Bernardino
STARTING PITCHER

Brennan Bernardino

#83 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Backhus None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 2
Brennan Bernardino None-None 1.93 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 1.93
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
📊
ROCKIES
0%
PHILLIES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

40.1%

Rockies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

10.6%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u11.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 COL @ PHI 0 - 6
May 9, 2026 COL @ PHI 3 - 9
May 8, 2026 COL @ PHI 9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026 PHI @ COL 1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026 PHI @ COL 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.724
OPS
▲ .739
3
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5900.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +44.0% more
Colorado: 3.2 vs Philadelphia: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season) +32.6% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season) +3.6%
Colorado: 32.2% vs Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.0 1
COL Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.6 / 8.9 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 12.3 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 8.7 / 14.9 17.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PHI
COL
PHI
ML
60% 97-64
59% 97-67
55% 88-73
49% 80-84
ATS
60% 97-64
65% 107-57
52% 83-78
51% 83-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
57% 88-67-9
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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