TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
3-5 | Road
4
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
3-5 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Rogers
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 16.88 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
16.88
ERA
Ldr 4.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
TWINS
0%
RAYS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
MIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026
TB @ MIN
4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
TB @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.728
▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+42.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+10.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Errors (L5)
+64.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.3% more
Tampa Bay: 10.1
vs
Minnesota: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
4
MIN Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 8.6
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 10.1
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.0 / 12.9
6.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.9
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TB
MIN
TB
ML
52%
84-78
58%
95-68
50%
80-81
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-67
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
78-75-9
47%
73-81-9
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-75-10
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