MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
6-2 | Road
8
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
4-4 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
ROYALS
0%
BREWERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MIL @ KC
8 - 5
Apr 4, 2026
MIL @ KC
2 - 8
Apr 2, 2025
KC @ MIL
2 - 3
Apr 1, 2025
KC @ MIL
0 - 5
Mar 31, 2025
KC @ MIL
11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743
▲
OPS
.718
154
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Kansas City: 0.4
vs
Milwaukee: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+18.5% more
Kansas City: 4.8
vs
Milwaukee: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+10.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Home Runs (L5)
+41.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.2
vs
Kansas City: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
3.0
8
KC Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.6
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 10.5
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 14.4
13.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.8 / 4.0
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIL
KC
MIL
ML
55%
89-72
62%
101-61
56%
90-70
52%
84-78
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
94-68
58%
93-67
48%
78-84
TTL
58%
90-64-7
40%
62-92-8
54%
83-70-7
50%
77-77-8
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