INDIANA
PACERSIND
18-59 | Road
108
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
48-29 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PACERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
261.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
IND By 1-7 points
15.3%
IND By 8-14 points
5.8%
CLE By 1-7 points
26.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
127
INDIANA
Cleveland
134
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
114
INDIANA
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.5
Loss
Proj Total: 261.0
D
Sim
u239.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+22.2% more
Indiana: 3.3
vs
Cleveland: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+19.3% more
Indiana: 35.8
vs
Cleveland: 28.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Indiana: 42.9%
vs
Cleveland: 36.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Indiana: 79.3%
vs
Cleveland: 75.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
127.0
108
CLE Score
134.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 42.9
34.0 / 39.0
Assists
28.9 / 35.8
26.0 / 28.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.3
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 51.9
47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 79.3
79.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 41.6
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.1
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 13.6
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
IND
CLE
IND
ML
60%
69-46
48%
47-50
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
57-40
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
68-47
54%
52-45
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
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