Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Royals MIL @ KC

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

6-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

3-4  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Megill
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Megill

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Megill None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 2
Steven Cruz None-None 10.13 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 Ldr ERA 10.13
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
BREWERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

MIL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MILWAUKEE
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 MIL @ KC 8 - 5
Apr 4, 2026 MIL @ KC 2 - 8
Apr 2, 2025 KC @ MIL 2 - 3
Apr 1, 2025 KC @ MIL 0 - 5
Mar 31, 2025 KC @ MIL 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743 ▲
OPS
.718
154
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +53.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Milwaukee: 0.0
Walks (L5) +37.2% more
Kansas City: 4.1 vs Milwaukee: 3.0
Hits (L5) +11.8% more
Kansas City: 8.8 vs Milwaukee: 7.9
Home Runs (Season) +10.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 3.0 2
KC Score 4.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.9 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 11.2 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 13.0 11.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.0 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIL
KC
MIL
ML
55% 89-72
62% 101-61
56% 90-70
52% 84-78
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 94-68
58% 93-67
48% 78-84
TTL
58% 90-64-7
40% 62-92-8
54% 83-70-7
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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