UTAH
JAZZUTAH
21-57 | Road
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
61-16 | Home
146
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
THUNDER
0%
JAZZ
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
UTAH By 1-7 points
0.8%
UTAH By 8-14 points
0.1%
OKC By 1-7 points
4.8%
OKC By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
115
UTAH
Oklahoma City
138
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Utah
109
UTAH
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.5
Win
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim
u239.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
UTAH @ OKC
111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026
UTAH @ OKC
125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025
OKC @ UTAH
131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025
OKC @ UTAH
144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025
OKC @ UTAH
145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.4% more
Oklahoma City: 9.9
vs
Utah: 8.0
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
Oklahoma City: 5.0
vs
Utah: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.7%
Oklahoma City: 80.8%
vs
Utah: 69.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Oklahoma City: 37.0%
vs
Utah: 31.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
115.0
111
OKC Score
138.0
146
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 31.1
53.0 / 36.0
Assists
25.3 / 28.3
40.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.2
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 46.8
59.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 69.2
88.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 43.1
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.9 / 8.0
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.3
16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
ML
70%
80-34
60%
96-63
48%
46-49
48%
40-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
68%
108-51
48%
46-49
48%
40-43
TTL
67%
76-38
75%
119-39-1
100%
95-0
100%
83-0
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