Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Warriors HOU @ GS

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

48-29  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sun, Apr 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

36-41  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
ROCKETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

72.6%

Warriors Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

26.8%

HOU By 8-14 points

24.3%

GS By 1-7 points

16.9%

GS By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
120
HOUSTON
114
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
114
HOUSTON
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.7% more
Houston: 5.6 vs Golden State: 3.6
Assists (L5) +10.3% more
Houston: 30.7 vs Golden State: 27.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.8%
Houston: 42.4% vs Golden State: 33.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Houston: 50.8% vs Golden State: 46.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 120.0 117
GS Score 114.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 42.4 35.0 / 45.0
Assists 27.6 / 30.7 34.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.6 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 50.8 50.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 81.7 / 79.5 90.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 42.5 / 46.1 31.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.6 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 11.0 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
HOU
GS
HOU
ML
55% 95-79
61% 69-44
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 70-43
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
TTL
77% 134-40
51% 58-55
100% 84-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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