ORLANDO
MAGICORL
41-36 | Road
112
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
25-53 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
PELICANS
100%
MAGIC
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
25.3%
NO By 1-7 points
15.3%
NO By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
129
ORLANDO
New Orleans
122
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Orlando
109
ORLANDO
New Orleans
112
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
ORL @ NO
112 - 108
Jan 11, 2026
NO @ ORL
118 - 128
Oct 16, 2025
NO @ ORL
125 - 132
Mar 13, 2025
ORL @ NO
113 - 93
Nov 8, 2024
NO @ ORL
88 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.4% more
Orlando: 18.6
vs
New Orleans: 14.0
Assists (L5)
+16.1% more
Orlando: 28.6
vs
New Orleans: 24.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Orlando: 83.0%
vs
New Orleans: 80.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Orlando: 47.6%
vs
New Orleans: 45.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
129.0
112
NO Score
122.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 37.3
32.0 / 21.0
Assists
24.0 / 28.6
18.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.1
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 47.6
42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
80.2 / 83.0
78.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 40.2
47.0 / 57.0
Steals
9.2 / 8.3
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 18.6
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ORL
NO
ORL
ML
62%
98-61
61%
65-42
58%
48-35
56%
51-40
ATS
68%
107-51-1
64%
68-38-1
58%
48-35
56%
51-40
TTL
75%
119-40
57%
61-46
100%
83-0
100%
91-0
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