TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
43-34 | Road
101
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
52-25 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
CELTICS
0%
RAPTORS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TOR By 1-7 points
15.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
5.8%
BOS By 1-7 points
26.2%
BOS By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
116
TORONTO
Boston
123
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Boston
122
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
TOR @ BOS
101 - 115
Jan 9, 2026
TOR @ BOS
117 - 125
Dec 20, 2025
BOS @ TOR
112 - 96
Dec 7, 2025
BOS @ TOR
121 - 113
Oct 15, 2025
TOR @ BOS
108 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+13.1% more
Boston: 47.4
vs
Toronto: 41.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.2%
Boston: 77.9%
vs
Toronto: 70.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Boston: 42.9%
vs
Toronto: 38.3%
Steals (L5)
+46.8% more
Toronto: 11.0
vs
Boston: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
116.0
101
BOS Score
123.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.9 / 38.3
29.0 / 40.0
Assists
28.2 / 33.3
25.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.1 / 5.2
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 52.3
53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 70.7
81.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 41.9
44.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.8 / 11.0
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 13.7
18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
57%
61-46
55%
57-47
53%
47-41
55%
48-39
ATS
59%
61-43-3
61%
62-40-2
53%
47-41
55%
48-39
TTL
56%
60-47
60%
62-42
100%
88-0
100%
87-0
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