CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
4-3 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
4-3 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 8.44 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Alexander | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.44
ERA
Ldr 1.80
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
RANGERS
0%
REDS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Texas
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
CIN @ TEX
2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
CIN @ TEX
2 - 0
Apr 3, 2026
CIN @ TEX
5 - 3
Apr 2, 2025
TEX @ CIN
1 - 0
Apr 1, 2025
TEX @ CIN
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.699
OPS
▲
.713
213
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+23.9% more
Texas: 8.9
vs
Cincinnati: 7.2
Total Bases (L5)
+18.7% more
Texas: 15.7
vs
Cincinnati: 13.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.2% more
Texas: 9.9
vs
Cincinnati: 9.2
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.0
2
TEX Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.2
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.2
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 13.2
4.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.6
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CIN
TEX
CIN
ML
53%
86-76
55%
88-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
92-70
54%
86-73
61%
98-63
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
78-70-14
53%
81-73-5
55%
81-66-14
54%
83-72-5
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