Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ 76ers DET @ PHI

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

56-21  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

43-34  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
📊
76ERS
0%
PISTONS --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
257.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

46.0%

76ers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DET By 1-7 points

24.3%

DET By 8-14 points

13.7%

PHI By 1-7 points

26.2%

PHI By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
128
DETROIT
129
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
118
DETROIT
105
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 76ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 76ers (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pistons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Loss
Proj Total: 257.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 4, 2026 DET @ PHI 116 - 93
Mar 12, 2026 PHI @ DET 109 - 131
Nov 14, 2025 PHI @ DET 105 - 114
Nov 9, 2025 DET @ PHI 111 - 108
Feb 7, 2025 PHI @ DET 112 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
Philadelphia: 83.3% vs Detroit: 74.5%
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Philadelphia: 7.1 vs Detroit: 6.6
Turnovers (L5) +25.5% more
Detroit: 17.0 vs Philadelphia: 12.7
Steals (L5) +18.1% more
Detroit: 8.7 vs Philadelphia: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 128.0 116
PHI Score 129.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 44.1 28.0 / 39.0
Assists 28.8 / 30.6 17.0 / 33.0
Blocks 7.1 / 6.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 50.9 44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 83.3 / 74.5 79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 46.3 / 44.0 33.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.7 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 17.0 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DET
PHI
DET
ML
63% 69-40
55% 64-53
48% 45-48
49% 47-49
ATS
65% 71-38
53% 60-54-3
48% 45-48
49% 47-49
TTL
55% 60-49
60% 70-46-1
100% 93-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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