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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

17-59  |  Road

136
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 3:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

40-37  |  Home

152
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
WIZARDS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Miami)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

27.4%

Heat Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

WSH By 1-7 points

16.9%

WSH By 8-14 points

6.8%

MIA By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
119
WASHINGTON
125
MIAMI
Simulated Score
105
WASHINGTON
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Heat (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u246.5 Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u246.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MIA @ WSH 140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026 WSH @ MIA 136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026 WSH @ MIA 129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026 MIA @ WSH 132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025 WSH @ MIA 119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.8% more
Miami: 4.0 vs Washington: 2.9
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
Miami: 43.7 vs Washington: 35.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Miami: 38.6% vs Washington: 33.3%
Turnovers (L5) +20.4% more
Washington: 12.8 vs Miami: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 119.0 136
MIA Score 125.0 152
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 33.3 44.0 / 43.0
Assists 27.0 / 26.5 42.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.9 11.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 47.6 58.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 80.5 79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 35.6 49.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.2 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.8 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48% 46-50
70% 112-49
59% 48-34
47% 39-44
ATS
51% 49-47
69% 111-49-1
59% 48-34
47% 39-44
TTL
59% 57-39
74% 119-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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