MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
5-2 | Road
7
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
6-1 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| David Bednar | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75
ERA
Ldr 4.15
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
YANKEES
0%
MARLINS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
6
MIAMI
New York
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MIA @ NYY
7 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
MIA @ NYY
7 - 9
Apr 3, 2026
MIA @ NYY
2 - 8
Aug 3, 2025
NYY @ MIA
3 - 7
Aug 2, 2025
NYY @ MIA
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.727
OPS
▲
1.041
168
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+104.1% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+12.6%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Miami: 24.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+12.1%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Miami: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.0
7
NYY Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 8.0
6.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.8
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 14.9
9.0 / 19.0
Walks
1.1 / 4.7
5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
MIA
NYY
MIA
ML
47%
76-85
48%
78-84
52%
85-77
55%
88-72
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
91-71
53%
86-76
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
81-73-7
56%
88-69-5
53%
82-72-7
53%
82-73-5
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