Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Nationals LAD @ WSH

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

5-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

3-4  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 --
Jake Irvin None-None 8.00 -- 4.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 8.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
DODGERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
LOS ANGELES
2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 WSH @ LAD 5 - 7
Sep 5, 2026 WSH @ LAD 5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026 WSH @ LAD 3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026 LAD @ WSH 8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026 LAD @ WSH 10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.762 ▲
OPS
.744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +59.8% more
Los Angeles: 2.3 vs Washington: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +15.5% more
Los Angeles: 18.1 vs Washington: 15.3
OPS (Season) +1.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Washington: 74.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.7%
Los Angeles: 33.8% vs Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.0 10
WSH Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 10.1 8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 6.9 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 18.1 15.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LAD
WSH
LAD
ML
57% 92-69
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 98-67
57% 91-70
43% 72-94
TTL
50% 77-78-6
48% 77-82-6
42% 65-90-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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