BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
3-4 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
4-3 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Barco
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Hunter Barco | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 2.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.80 Ldr
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
100%
PIRATES
0%
ORIOLES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
BAL @ PIT
2 - 8
Apr 4, 2026
BAL @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 3, 2026
BAL @ PIT
4 - 5
Sep 11, 2025
PIT @ BAL
2 - 3
Sep 10, 2025
PIT @ BAL
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.711
OPS
▲
.734
199
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+14.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.8
vs
Baltimore: 4.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+2.3%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.9%
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.0
2
PIT Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.2
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.2
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 14.9
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.8 / 4.2
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BAL
PIT
BAL
ML
52%
82-77
53%
83-73
52%
85-78
57%
90-69
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
95-60-1
50%
81-82
57%
90-68-1
TTL
47%
72-81-6
54%
81-70-5
50%
79-78-6
51%
78-75-6
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