Home / NHL Projections NHL / Bruins @ Lightning BOS @ TB

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

43-25-8  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 5:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

47-22-6  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jeremy Swayman None-None 2.02 0.909 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.955 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.02 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.909 Save % Ldr 0.955
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
BRUINS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
BruinsBOS (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
BOSTON
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 TB @ BOS 2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 3
Feb 1, 2026 BOS @ TB 5 - 6
Oct 13, 2025 TB @ BOS 4 - 3
Mar 15, 2025 TB @ BOS 6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +47.8% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Boston: 22.5
Power Play % (L5) +30.0%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Boston: 1.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +30.4% more
Boston: 18.6 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Hits (L5) +14.8% more
Boston: 22.3 vs Tampa Bay: 19.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 1
TB Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
40%MONEY60%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
wsvn 3 hours, 15 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day, 3 hours ago
Bryan Baker's Dominance Out of Bullpen Puts Rays One Win from AL…
si 1 day, 15 hours ago
Flyers Land Michael Bunting in Bid to Stop Early Season Skid
yourvalley_net 2 days, 3 hours ago
Rays Capitalize on Yankees' Defensive Woes, Take 2-0 ALDS Lead
headtopics 2 days, 21 hours ago