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FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

37-35-3  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Apr 4 • 5:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

38-22-16  |  Home

9
Goaltending
Seth Jones
GOALTENDER

Seth Jones

#3 | Defense
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Seth Jones None-None -- -- --
Arturs Silovs None-None 4.00 0.826 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 4.00
-- Save % 0.826
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
PENGUINS
100%
PANTHERS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PanthersFLA (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

30.9%

Penguins Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

FLA By 1 goal

19.7%

FLA By 2-3 goals

29.6%

PIT By 1 goal

12.1%

PIT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
FLORIDA
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
FLORIDA
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 FLA @ PIT 2 - 5
Apr 4, 2026 FLA @ PIT 4 - 9
Oct 23, 2025 PIT @ FLA 5 - 3
Mar 23, 2025 PIT @ FLA 3 - 4
Jan 3, 2025 PIT @ FLA 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5) +10.6%
Florida: 56.9% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Blocked Shots (L5) +22.0% more
Pittsburgh: 11.1 vs Florida: 9.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.9% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Florida: 25.4
Takeaways (L5) +18.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.0 vs Florida: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 3.0 4
PIT Score 2.0 9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
FLA
PIT
FLA
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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