Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Nationals LAD @ WSH

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

4-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Fri, Apr 3 • 1:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

3-3  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 1
Miles Mikolas None-None 14.46 -- 4.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 Ldr ERA 14.46
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
DODGERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
LOS ANGELES
2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
7
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 WSH @ LAD 5 - 7
Sep 5, 2026 WSH @ LAD 5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026 WSH @ LAD 3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026 LAD @ WSH 8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026 LAD @ WSH 10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.762 ▲
OPS
.744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +25.6% more
Los Angeles: 7.8 vs Washington: 5.8
Home Runs (L5) +10.8% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Washington: 0.9
OPS (Season) +1.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Washington: 74.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.7%
Los Angeles: 33.8% vs Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.0 13
WSH Score 2.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 7.2 11.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 7.8 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 11.2 17.0 / 32.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.3 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LAD
WSH
LAD
ML
57% 92-69
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 98-67
57% 91-70
43% 72-94
TTL
50% 77-78-6
48% 77-82-6
42% 65-90-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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