NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
25-52 | Road
113
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
20-57 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
KINGS
0%
PELICANS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
259.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
NO By 1-7 points
24.3%
NO By 8-14 points
13.7%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
129
NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento
130
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
109
NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento
121
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.0
Loss
Proj Total: 259.0
D
Sim
u232.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
NO @ SAC
113 - 117
Mar 5, 2026
NO @ SAC
133 - 123
Feb 9, 2026
SAC @ NO
94 - 120
Feb 13, 2025
SAC @ NO
133 - 140
Feb 12, 2025
SAC @ NO
119 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.2%
Sacramento: 80.5%
vs
New Orleans: 75.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Sacramento: 36.3%
vs
New Orleans: 34.7%
Blocks (L5)
+55.4% more
New Orleans: 6.5
vs
Sacramento: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+15.6% more
New Orleans: 7.8
vs
Sacramento: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
129.0
113
SAC Score
130.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 34.7
30.0 / 41.0
Assists
25.2 / 24.0
29.0 / 24.0
Blocks
2.9 / 6.5
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 44.9
51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
80.5 / 75.3
75.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
43.6 / 41.1
46.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.8
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 14.6
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
NO
SAC
NO
ML
55%
55-45
62%
98-61
61%
50-32
58%
48-35
ATS
54%
52-45-3
68%
107-51-1
61%
50-32
58%
48-35
TTL
58%
57-42-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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