INDIANA
PACERSIND
18-58 | Road
108
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
41-36 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
HORNETS
0%
PACERS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
IND By 1-7 points
24.3%
IND By 8-14 points
13.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
26.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
124
INDIANA
Charlotte
125
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Charlotte
120
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.5
Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.6% more
Charlotte: 46.1
vs
Indiana: 39.9
Assists (L5)
+35.4% more
Indiana: 39.2
vs
Charlotte: 25.4
Steals (L5)
+26.8% more
Indiana: 8.1
vs
Charlotte: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+25.5% more
Indiana: 4.4
vs
Charlotte: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
124.0
108
CHA Score
125.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 43.4
49.0 / 42.0
Assists
25.4 / 39.2
31.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.4
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 54.9
48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
84.3 / 84.0
87.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
46.1 / 39.9
48.0 / 45.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.1
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.4
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
IND
CHA
IND
ML
61%
60-39
48%
47-50
48%
40-44
54%
45-38
ATS
60%
59-40
59%
57-40
48%
40-44
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
57-42
54%
52-45
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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