Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Grizzlies TOR @ MEM

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

42-34  |  Road

128
FINAL
Fri, Apr 3 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

25-51  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
RAPTORS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Toronto)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

95.5%

Grizzlies Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-7 points

12.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

23.0%

MEM By 1-7 points

3.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120
TORONTO
103
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
108
TORONTO
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 TOR @ MEM 128 - 96
Nov 2, 2025 MEM @ TOR 104 - 117
Feb 5, 2025 MEM @ TOR 138 - 107
Dec 26, 2024 TOR @ MEM 126 - 155
Jan 22, 2024 MEM @ TOR 108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.4% more
Toronto: 34.5 vs Memphis: 26.8
Rebounding (L5) +19.1% more
Toronto: 37.4 vs Memphis: 30.3
Blocks (L5) +18.5% more
Toronto: 4.8 vs Memphis: 3.9
Steals (L5) +14.2% more
Toronto: 11.4 vs Memphis: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 120.0 128
MEM Score 103.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 38.4 26.0 / 38.0
Assists 26.8 / 34.5 14.0 / 31.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.8 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 52.5 40.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 68.0 65.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 37.4 38.0 / 51.0
Steals 9.8 / 11.4 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 12.6 20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
TOR
MEM
TOR
ML
57% 59-44
55% 57-47
50% 41-41
55% 48-39
ATS
63% 65-38
61% 62-40-2
50% 41-41
55% 48-39
TTL
70% 71-31-1
60% 62-42
100% 82-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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