ORLANDO
MAGICORL
40-36 | Road
138
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
24-52 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
MAGIC
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
20.1%
ORL By 8-14 points
27.2%
DAL By 1-7 points
8.0%
DAL By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
118
ORLANDO
Dallas
106
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Orlando
107
ORLANDO
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.5
Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u239.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
ORL @ DAL
138 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
DAL @ ORL
114 - 115
Mar 27, 2025
DAL @ ORL
101 - 92
Nov 3, 2024
ORL @ DAL
85 - 108
Jan 29, 2024
ORL @ DAL
129 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.9% more
Orlando: 19.3
vs
Dallas: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.8%
Orlando: 84.0%
vs
Dallas: 74.2%
Assists (L5)
+8.7% more
Orlando: 25.4
vs
Dallas: 23.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Orlando: 43.4%
vs
Dallas: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
118.0
138
DAL Score
106.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 29.0
33.0 / 54.0
Assists
23.2 / 25.4
25.0 / 35.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 43.4
46.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 84.0
81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 38.8
41.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.2 / 7.4
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 19.3
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
ORL
DAL
ORL
ML
62%
63-39
61%
65-42
54%
44-37
56%
51-40
ATS
67%
68-34
64%
68-38-1
54%
44-37
56%
51-40
TTL
59%
60-41-1
57%
61-46
100%
81-0
100%
91-0
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