UTAH
JAZZUTAH
21-56 | Road
106
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
47-29 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
ROCKETS
0%
JAZZ
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
UTAH By 1-7 points
10.7%
UTAH By 8-14 points
3.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
23.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
114
UTAH
Houston
124
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Utah
113
UTAH
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025
UTAH @ HOU
127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.4% more
Houston: 5.8
vs
Utah: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
Houston: 80.8%
vs
Utah: 69.7%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.7% more
Houston: 46.2
vs
Utah: 42.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Houston: 40.1%
vs
Utah: 37.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
114.0
106
HOU Score
124.0
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 37.2
47.0 / 19.0
Assists
31.1 / 31.4
30.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.2
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 47.7
55.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 69.7
77.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 42.1
46.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.3 / 8.5
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 13.5
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
ML
61%
69-44
60%
96-63
59%
51-35
48%
40-43
ATS
62%
70-43
68%
108-51
59%
51-35
48%
40-43
TTL
51%
58-55
75%
119-39-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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