TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
4-2 | Road
4
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
1-5 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Sean Newcomb | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.76
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
WHITE SOX
100%
BLUE JAYS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.4%
CHW By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Chicago
2
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Chicago
7
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CHW @ TOR
3 - 0
Jul 18, 2026
CHW @ TOR
0 - 1
Jul 17, 2026
CHW @ TOR
12 - 4
Apr 5, 2026
TOR @ CHW
0 - 3
Apr 4, 2026
TOR @ CHW
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.692
OPS
▲
.826
152
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.3% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.8% more
Toronto: 12.7
vs
Chicago: 7.8
Hits (L5)
+37.9% more
Toronto: 9.3
vs
Chicago: 5.8
Total Bases (L5)
+29.3% more
Toronto: 13.1
vs
Chicago: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
4
CHW Score
2.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.8 / 9.3
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 12.7
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 13.1
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.7
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TOR
CHW
TOR
ML
48%
81-87
46%
74-87
56%
94-74
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
99-69
56%
90-71
55%
93-75
49%
79-81
TTL
58%
97-69-2
51%
80-76-5
51%
85-81-2
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox