CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
3-3 | Road
5
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
4-2 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jakob Junis
#16 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 10.38 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jakob Junis | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.38
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
RANGERS
0%
REDS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
2
CINCINNATI
Texas
3
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Texas
3
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
CIN @ TEX
2 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
CIN @ TEX
2 - 0
Apr 3, 2026
CIN @ TEX
5 - 3
Apr 2, 2025
TEX @ CIN
1 - 0
Apr 1, 2025
TEX @ CIN
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.699
OPS
▲
.713
213
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+62.1% more
Texas: 9.3
vs
Cincinnati: 5.7
Total Bases (L5)
+57.6% more
Texas: 15.6
vs
Cincinnati: 9.9
Home Runs (L5)
+36.8% more
Texas: 1.5
vs
Cincinnati: 1.1
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
2.0
5
TEX Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 5.7
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.2
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 9.9
16.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.4
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CIN
TEX
CIN
ML
53%
86-76
55%
88-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
92-70
54%
86-73
61%
98-63
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
78-70-14
53%
81-73-5
55%
81-66-14
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…