Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Athletics HOU @ ATH

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

5-2  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 3 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

1-5  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Cristian Javier
STARTING PITCHER

Cristian Javier

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cristian Javier None-None 12.96 -- 3.2 2
J.T. Ginn None-None 3.18 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
12.96 ERA Ldr 3.18
-- WHIP --
3.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
📊
ATHLETICS
0%
ASTROS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Athletics)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Athletics Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

HOU By 1-2 runs

16.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
HOUSTON
4
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4750.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5) +44.0% more
Athletics: 0.5 vs Houston: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5) +17.2% more
Athletics: 4.6 vs Houston: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.0 4
ATH Score 4.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 9.5 13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 12.2 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 17.8 21.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.9 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-72
50% 81-80
55% 90-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
45% 70-84-9
42% 66-90-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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