Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Trail Blazers NO @ POR

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

25-51  |  Road

106
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

39-38  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
PELICANS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Portland)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

42.1%

Trail Blazers Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

NO By 1-7 points

23.0%

NO By 8-14 points

12.2%

POR By 1-7 points

26.8%

POR By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
117
NEW ORLEANS
119
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
109
NEW ORLEANS
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 NO @ POR 106 - 118
Jan 2, 2026 POR @ NO 122 - 109
Dec 11, 2025 POR @ NO 120 - 143
Nov 12, 2025 POR @ NO 125 - 117
Jan 8, 2025 POR @ NO 119 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.6% more
Portland: 18.1 vs New Orleans: 12.4
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
Portland: 48.6 vs New Orleans: 39.6
Steals (L5) +15.7% more
Portland: 8.3 vs New Orleans: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
Portland: 80.8% vs New Orleans: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 117.0 106
POR Score 119.0 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 32.6 39.0 / 39.0
Assists 23.7 / 23.5 27.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.8 / 7.3 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 44.8 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 80.8 / 72.4 78.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 48.6 / 39.6 45.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.3 / 7.1 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 18.1 / 12.4 16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
NO
POR
NO
ML
53% 56-49
62% 98-61
55% 49-40
58% 48-35
ATS
62% 65-39-1
68% 107-51-1
55% 49-40
58% 48-35
TTL
56% 58-46-1
75% 119-40
100% 89-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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