PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
42-34 | Road
107
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
40-36 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
HORNETS
0%
SUNS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
PHX By 1-7 points
6.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
1.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
18.6%
CHA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
109
PHOENIX
Charlotte
122
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
107
PHOENIX
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o225.5
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
PHX @ CHA
107 - 127
Mar 8, 2026
CHA @ PHX
99 - 111
Jan 12, 2025
CHA @ PHX
113 - 120
Jan 7, 2025
PHX @ CHA
104 - 115
Mar 15, 2024
PHX @ CHA
107 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.7%
Charlotte: 83.0%
vs
Phoenix: 69.3%
Steals (L5)
+43.4% more
Phoenix: 9.6
vs
Charlotte: 5.4
Blocks (L5)
+37.6% more
Phoenix: 4.7
vs
Charlotte: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
Phoenix: 28.3
vs
Charlotte: 24.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
109.0
107
CHA Score
122.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 34.4
37.0 / 41.0
Assists
24.5 / 28.3
27.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.7
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 45.4
52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
83.0 / 69.3
87.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
45.7 / 45.2
47.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.4 / 9.6
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 14.1
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
PHX
CHA
PHX
ML
61%
60-39
57%
60-45
48%
40-44
51%
45-43
ATS
60%
59-40
58%
59-43-3
48%
40-44
51%
45-43
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
61-42-2
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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