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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

50-26  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

60-16  |  Home

139
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
LAKERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oklahoma City)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

11.5%

Thunder Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

LAL By 1-7 points

8.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

2.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

20.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
112
LOS ANGELES
124
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
LOS ANGELES
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
Oklahoma City: 82.8% vs Los Angeles: 81.1%
Assists (L5) +14.2% more
Los Angeles: 25.6 vs Oklahoma City: 22.0
Blocks (L5) +12.5% more
Los Angeles: 5.7 vs Oklahoma City: 5.0
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Los Angeles: 53.8% vs Oklahoma City: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 112.0 96
OKC Score 124.0 139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 37.2 45.0 / 23.0
Assists 22.0 / 25.6 32.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.0 / 5.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 53.8 54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 81.1 77.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 44.3 / 42.0 50.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.9 / 9.0 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 13.5 10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAL
OKC
LAL
ML
70% 80-34
61% 68-43
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
ATS
73% 83-30-1
61% 67-43-1
48% 46-49
54% 49-42
TTL
67% 76-38
61% 66-43-2
100% 95-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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