ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
4-2 | Road
17
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
3-3 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez | None-None | 1.64 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 15.43 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.64 Ldr
ERA
15.43
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
BRAVES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Arizona
ARI
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16500.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+63.0% more
Arizona: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+27.4% more
Arizona: 13.4
vs
Atlanta: 10.6
Walks (L5)
+19.9% more
Arizona: 2.1
vs
Atlanta: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.0
17
ARI Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.4
6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.0
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 10.6
12.0 / 33.0
Walks
2.1 / 1.7
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
ATL
ARI
ATL
ML
54%
87-74
46%
77-90
54%
86-74
54%
90-78
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
96-71
56%
89-71
52%
87-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
83-73-11
49%
73-77-9
49%
76-80-11
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