MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
1-4 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
3-2 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Rogers
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Cruz
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Rogers | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Steven Cruz | None-None | 16.20 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
16.20
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
ROYALS
0%
TWINS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.718
187
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Kansas City: 1.6
vs
Minnesota: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+34.4% more
Kansas City: 16.5
vs
Minnesota: 12.3
Hits (L5)
+33.2% more
Kansas City: 9.8
vs
Minnesota: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+22.7% more
Kansas City: 4.7
vs
Minnesota: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
5
KC Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 7.3
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.5
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 12.3
7.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55%
89-72
52%
84-78
56%
90-70
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-75-9
54%
83-70-7
53%
80-72-9
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