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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

31-35-8  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

33-26-16  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
@
Carter Hart
GOALTENDER

Carter Hart

#79 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dustin Wolf None-None 6.08 0.824 --
Carter Hart None-None 3.01 0.864 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
6.08 GAA Ldr 3.01
0.824 Save % Ldr 0.864
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
FLAMES --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

30.9%

Golden Knights Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VGK +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

CGY By 1 goal

19.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

VGK By 1 goal

12.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CALGARY
2
VEGAS
Simulated Score
4
CALGARY
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Flames (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 CGY @ VGK 3 - 6
Dec 20, 2025 VGK @ CGY 3 - 6
Oct 18, 2025 CGY @ VGK 1 - 6
Oct 14, 2025 VGK @ CGY 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025 VGK @ CGY 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +17.8% more
Calgary: 5.1 vs Vegas: 4.2
Faceoff % (L5) +5.8%
Calgary: 59.1% vs Vegas: 53.3%
Hits (L5) +32.7% more
Vegas: 22.9 vs Calgary: 17.3
Power Play % (L5) +21.5%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Calgary: 1.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 3.0 3
VGK Score 2.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
59%MONEY41%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
CGY
VGK
CGY
ML
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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