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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

38-21-16  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

46-22-6  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.06 0.875 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.06
-- Save % 0.875
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
PENGUINS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

PIT By 1 goal

12.1%

PIT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PITTSBURGH
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Penguins (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 PIT @ TB 3 - 6
Jan 13, 2026 TB @ PIT 2 - 1
Dec 4, 2025 PIT @ TB 4 - 3
Mar 25, 2025 PIT @ TB 1 - 6
Jan 12, 2025 TB @ PIT 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.0%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +16.5% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Shots on Goal (L5) +9.0% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Pittsburgh: 30.5
Faceoff % (L5) +3.5%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.0 3
TB Score 3.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
95%MONEY5%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PIT
TB
PIT
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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