Home / NHL Projections NHL / Sabres @ Senators BUF @ OTT

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

46-21-8  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

38-26-10  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 2.04 0.909 --
Linus Ullmark None-None 1.00 0.955 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.04 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.909 Save % Ldr 0.955
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
SENATORS
0%
SABRES --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

30.9%

Senators Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

OTT By 1 goal

19.7%

OTT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BUFFALO
4
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
1
BUFFALO
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Senators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Senators (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Senators (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 BUF @ OTT 1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025 BUF @ OTT 3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025 OTT @ BUF 4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025 BUF @ OTT 5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025 OTT @ BUF 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +37.2%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Buffalo: 26.3%
Takeaways (L5) +33.2% more
Ottawa: 5.1 vs Buffalo: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5) +10.6%
Ottawa: 58.7% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Shots on Goal (L5) +10.8% more
Buffalo: 27.2 vs Ottawa: 24.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 3.0 1
OTT Score 4.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
44%MONEY56%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
BUF
OTT
BUF
ML
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
si 1 hour, 1 minute ago
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 7 hours, 1 minute ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 13 hours, 1 minute ago
Dylan Larkin Scores in Return to Red Wings Lineup Amid Trade Req…
nbcsports 1 day, 6 hours ago
Dylan Larkin Cleared to Return: Red Wings Star Set for Season De…
yardbarker 2 days, 6 hours ago