Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Raptors SAC @ TOR

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

19-57  |  Road

123
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

42-33  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
KINGS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

42.1%

Raptors Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

SAC By 1-7 points

26.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

18.6%

TOR By 1-7 points

23.0%

TOR By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
SACRAMENTO
120
TORONTO
Simulated Score
110
SACRAMENTO
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SAC @ TOR 123 - 115
Jan 21, 2026 TOR @ SAC 122 - 109
Oct 8, 2025 TOR @ SAC 130 - 122
Nov 6, 2024 TOR @ SAC 107 - 122
Nov 2, 2024 SAC @ TOR 128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Sacramento: 74.3% vs Toronto: 67.6%
Steals (L5) +100.3% more
Toronto: 12.6 vs Sacramento: 6.3
Blocks (L5) +61.7% more
Toronto: 4.6 vs Sacramento: 2.9
Assists (L5) +36.7% more
Toronto: 35.2 vs Sacramento: 25.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 122.0 123
TOR Score 120.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 36.4 39.0 / 36.0
Assists 35.2 / 25.8 33.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.9 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 46.4 55.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 74.3 69.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 41.4 32.0 / 48.0
Steals 12.6 / 6.3 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 14.0 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SAC
TOR
SAC
ML
55% 57-47
55% 55-45
55% 48-39
61% 50-32
ATS
61% 62-40-2
54% 52-45-3
55% 48-39
61% 50-32
TTL
60% 62-42
58% 57-42-1
100% 87-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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