INDIANA
PACERSIND
17-58 | Road
145
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
29-46 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
BULLS
0%
PACERS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHI -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
IND By 1-7 points
10.7%
IND By 8-14 points
3.3%
CHI By 1-7 points
23.0%
CHI By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
116
INDIANA
Chicago
126
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Chicago
118
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u247.5
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u247.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
IND @ CHI
145 - 126
Jan 28, 2026
CHI @ IND
110 - 113
Dec 5, 2025
IND @ CHI
120 - 105
Nov 29, 2025
CHI @ IND
101 - 103
Mar 10, 2025
IND @ CHI
103 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+63.1% more
Chicago: 6.8
vs
Indiana: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+31.6% more
Chicago: 6.8
vs
Indiana: 5.2
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
Chicago: 44.0
vs
Indiana: 39.4
Assists (L5)
+22.4% more
Indiana: 34.4
vs
Chicago: 26.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
116.0
145
CHI Score
126.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 44.1
33.0 / 42.0
Assists
26.7 / 34.4
22.0 / 49.0
Blocks
6.8 / 4.2
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 53.8
48.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 81.0
73.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 39.4
46.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.8 / 5.2
6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 14.6
20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
IND
CHI
IND
ML
56%
54-42
48%
47-50
57%
46-35
54%
45-38
ATS
65%
62-33-1
59%
57-40
57%
46-35
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
56-40
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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