Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Jazz DEN @ UTAH

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

48-28  |  Road

130
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

21-55  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
JAZZ
100%
NUGGETS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
265.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

24.2%

Jazz Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

DEN By 1-7 points

26.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

25.3%

UTAH By 1-7 points

15.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
136
DENVER
129
UTAH
Simulated Score
109
DENVER
122
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o249.5 Loss
Proj Total: 265.0
D
Sim u249.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026 UTAH @ DEN 129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.2%
Denver: 83.8% vs Utah: 70.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Denver: 44.1% vs Utah: 39.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Denver: 50.7% vs Utah: 48.5%
Steals (L5) +44.7% more
Utah: 9.2 vs Denver: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 136.0 130
UTAH Score 129.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 44.1 32.0 / 41.0
Assists 31.2 / 33.1 32.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 50.7 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 83.8 68.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 44.6 44.0 / 53.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.4 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.2 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
DEN
ML
60% 96-63
54% 57-48
48% 40-43
55% 47-39
ATS
68% 108-51
63% 65-38-2
48% 40-43
55% 47-39
TTL
75% 119-39-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 0 minutes ago
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
yahoo 18 hours, 33 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 18 hours, 39 minutes ago
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
cbssports 23 hours, 39 minutes ago
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…
bleacherreport 1 day, 5 hours ago