Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Dodgers CLE @ LAD

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

3-3  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 8:20 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

4-1  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Smith None-None 9.00 -- 1.0 --
Tanner Scott None-None 3.38 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
GUARDIANS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CLEVELAND
3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
CLEVELAND
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 CLE @ LAD 1 - 4
Mar 30, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 2
May 28, 2025 LAD @ CLE 4 - 7
May 27, 2025 LAD @ CLE 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.696
OPS
▲ .762
162
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +68.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Hits (L5) +62.9% more
Los Angeles: 8.3 vs Cleveland: 5.1
Total Bases (L5) +58.8% more
Los Angeles: 12.3 vs Cleveland: 7.8
Home Runs (Season) +25.9% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.0 4
LAD Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 5.1 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.6 5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 7.8 9.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CLE
LAD
CLE
ML
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
49% 80-82
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-68
43% 72-94
59% 95-67
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 88-71-2
44% 70-90-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 1 hour, 45 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 46 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 23 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 7 hours, 35 minutes ago