Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Royals MIN @ KC

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

1-3  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

2-2  |  Home

13
Probable Pitchers
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Joe Ryan None-None 4.82 -- 4.0 3
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.82 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
TWINS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MINNESOTA
4
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
187 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Kansas City: 1.3 vs Minnesota: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +12.2% more
Kansas City: 12.3 vs Minnesota: 11.0
Hits (L5) +10.0% more
Kansas City: 7.1 vs Minnesota: 6.5
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.0 9
KC Score 4.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.2 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 6.5 15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.8 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 11.0 25.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.3 9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55% 89-72
52% 84-78
56% 90-70
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-70-7
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 2 hours, 58 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 6 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 9 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 3 hours, 17 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 15 hours, 12 minutes ago