BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
50-25 | Road
147
MIAMI
HEATMIA
40-36 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
HEAT
0%
CELTICS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BOS By 1-7 points
24.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
119
BOSTON
Miami
120
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Boston
109
BOSTON
Miami
122
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.6% more
Miami: 27.0
vs
Boston: 21.6
Steals (L5)
+22.1% more
Miami: 6.5
vs
Boston: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Miami: 79.0%
vs
Boston: 77.3%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.1% more
Boston: 12.7
vs
Miami: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
119.0
147
MIA Score
120.0
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 38.1
51.0 / 48.0
Assists
27.0 / 21.6
27.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.5
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 45.0
46.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 77.3
74.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
47.0 / 46.7
37.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.3
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 12.7
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BOS
MIA
BOS
ML
48%
46-50
57%
61-46
59%
48-34
53%
47-41
ATS
51%
49-47
59%
61-43-3
59%
48-34
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
57-39
56%
60-47
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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