Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Warriors SA @ GS

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

57-18  |  Road

127
FINAL
Wed, Apr 1 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

36-39  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
SPURS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

13.6%

Warriors Cover

86.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

SA By 1-7 points

21.6%

SA By 8-14 points

27.4%

GS By 1-7 points

9.3%

GS By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
121
SAN ANTONIO
110
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
118
SAN ANTONIO
109
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
D
Sim Spurs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o227.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 SA @ GS 127 - 113
Feb 11, 2026 SA @ GS 126 - 113
Nov 14, 2025 GS @ SA 109 - 108
Nov 12, 2025 GS @ SA 125 - 120
Apr 9, 2025 SA @ GS 114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +42.7% more
San Antonio: 5.1 vs Golden State: 2.9
Rebounding (L5) +19.7% more
San Antonio: 51.7 vs Golden State: 41.6
Assists (L5) +12.3% more
San Antonio: 32.8 vs Golden State: 28.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
San Antonio: 51.5% vs Golden State: 47.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 121.0 127
GS Score 110.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 38.5 40.0 / 32.0
Assists 28.7 / 32.8 29.0 / 34.0
Blocks 2.9 / 5.1 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 51.5 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 76.1 83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 51.7 39.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.1 / 8.4 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 17.7 / 12.5 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SA
GS
SA
ML
55% 95-79
60% 111-73
58% 49-35
58% 61-44
ATS
58% 101-73
58% 107-76-1
58% 49-35
58% 61-44
TTL
77% 134-40
74% 134-47-3
100% 84-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 3 hours, 34 minutes ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 9 hours, 38 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 9 hours, 46 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 9 hours, 52 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 9 hours, 54 minutes ago