NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
4-1 | Road
5
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
3-3 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Ferrer
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jose Ferrer | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.70
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
MARINERS
0%
YANKEES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
SEA @ NYY
5 - 10
Aug 11, 2026
SEA @ NYY
1 - 4
Apr 1, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NYY @ SEA
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Seattle
SEA
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
1.041
▲
OPS
.693
2
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9000.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+58.0% more
Seattle: 1.0
vs
New York: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
Seattle: 0.7
vs
New York: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.2% more
Seattle: 10.5
vs
New York: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
3.0
5
SEA Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 7.7
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.6
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.0 / 11.3
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.0
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
NYY
SEA
NYY
ML
50%
81-81
47%
76-85
52%
85-77
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
98-64
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
81-73-7
53%
81-71-10
53%
82-72-7
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