BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
1-4 | Road
4
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
4-2 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 19.29 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
19.29
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
ASTROS
0%
RED SOX
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.169
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.229
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.354
.409
OPS
▲
.582
2
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+200.0% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+111.0% more
Houston: 1.9
vs
Boston: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+95.1% more
Houston: 18.7
vs
Boston: 9.6
Hits (L5)
+80.2% more
Houston: 10.3
vs
Boston: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
4
HOU Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.3 / 5.7
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.8 / 7.9
13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
18.7 / 9.6
16.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BOS
HOU
BOS
ML
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-67
55%
90-74
48%
79-84
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
72-83-5
45%
69-86-9
47%
74-83-6
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