TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
2-3 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
4-1 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 18.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
18.00
ERA
Ldr 1.59
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
BREWERS
0%
RAYS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
TB @ MIL
2 - 8
Mar 31, 2026
TB @ MIL
2 - 6
Mar 30, 2026
TB @ MIL
3 - 2
May 11, 2025
MIL @ TB
4 - 2
May 10, 2025
MIL @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.258
Avg (AVG)
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.728
OPS
▲
.743
169
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+71.8% more
Milwaukee: 11.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Home Runs (L5)
+8.7% more
Milwaukee: 1.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
2
MIL Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.3
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 6.6
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 15.2
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
TB
MIL
TB
ML
62%
101-61
58%
95-68
52%
84-78
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
94-68
60%
97-66
48%
78-84
55%
90-73
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
73-81-9
50%
77-77-8
51%
78-75-10
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