NEW YORK
METSNYM
3-2 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
3-2 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
METS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
St. Louis
7
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
STL @ NYM
4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026
STL @ NYM
9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026
STL @ NYM
7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026
NYM @ STL
1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026
NYM @ STL
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.705
▲
OPS
.691
204
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
St. Louis: 1.2
vs
New York: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+25.4% more
St. Louis: 12.7
vs
New York: 10.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.0
1
STL Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.8
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.7 / 9.9
6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 10.1
5.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
NYM
STL
NYM
ML
53%
85-74
50%
79-80
52%
84-77
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-66
53%
85-76
49%
78-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
55%
80-66-13
50%
76-75-10
51%
74-72-13
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