WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
3-2 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
2-3 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
NATIONALS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+53.1% more
Philadelphia: 10.2
vs
Washington: 6.7
Home Runs (L5)
+27.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Washington: 0.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.6% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.0
5
PHI Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.4 / 10.1
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 6.7
11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 14.8
20.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…
A's Seth Johnson Undergoes Knee Surgery, Eyes Spring Training Re…