Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Dodgers CLE @ LAD

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

3-2  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Mar 31 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

3-1  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Edwin Diaz
STARTING PITCHER

Edwin Diaz

#3 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Festa None-None 6.00 -- 1.1 2
Edwin Diaz None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.00 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
GUARDIANS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CLEVELAND
3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 CLE @ LAD 1 - 4
Mar 30, 2026 CLE @ LAD 4 - 2
May 28, 2025 LAD @ CLE 4 - 7
May 27, 2025 LAD @ CLE 9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.696
OPS
▲ .762
162
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +25.9% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Total Bases (L5) +18.1% more
Los Angeles: 12.0 vs Cleveland: 10.1
Runs per Game (Season) +17.9% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 2.0 1
LAD Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 6.6 10.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.8 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 10.1 13.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.5 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CLE
LAD
CLE
ML
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
49% 80-82
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-68
43% 72-94
59% 95-67
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 88-71-2
44% 70-90-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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