WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
3-1 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
1-3 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Littell
#18 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
NATIONALS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+9.1% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Washington: 3.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.6% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+45.4% more
Washington: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.0
2
PHI Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.1 / 11.1
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.0
12.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 17.1
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
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